Last updated
What is it?
The line forecasting page provides accurate and statistically valid ampacity and temperature forecasts for monitored lines. This allows operators to regulate the capacity of their power lines safely and efficiently. By leveraging the power of forecasts, operators can become more proactive and respond quickly to contingency situations.
The forecasting page is designed to provide operators with the means to make operational decisions for monitored power lines.
Contents
The Forecasting page consists of two main components:
The forecasting plot contains recent observations about line loading and temperature and forecasted values for line capacity and temperature for the selected time interval.
The Meteogram contains both recent observations of weather and forecasted values for the selected time interval for the following parameters.
Ambient temperature (°C)
Precipitation (mm)
Wind speed (m/s)
Wind direction
The line forecasting page offers three separate models.
Synapse RTR: Our proprietary DLR model is an optimized version of the CIGRE standard, which uses neuron data (loading and line temperature) in addition to weather data as input.
CIGRE TB 601: Weather-based DLR
IEEE Std 738-2012: Weather-based DLR
The Synapse RTR model supports user-defined confidence intervals, which express the certainty of the forecast provided.
A confidence interval of 99 % means that there is a 1 % or less chance of the measured DLR values being below the forecasted value.
Supported Confidence Intervals
99%
95%
90 %
85 %
Supported forecasting intervals
3 hours
6 hours
12 hours
24 hours
How to use
By setting the desired confidence interval and forecasting period, the user can easily see statistically valid ampacity and temperature forecasts for their lines. This can be used when planning day-ahead operations. By operating with respect to the forecasted value for the whole line, the user will use their power line to the maximum capacity that doesn’t overload any of the critical spans.
If the user is planning a disconnection of a power line, the forecasting feature can be used to investigate if a given power line has the available capacity also to transmit the load of the disconnected line. Therefore, the forecasting feature can be an important tool in contingency situations, offering powerful insight.